With less than 35 days to go until Election Day, Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton has a sizable lead over Republican nominee Donald Trump in the Electoral College — but it’s nowhere near big enough to call the election over just yet.
Using polling data from RealClearPolitics and Washington Post/Survey Monkey, Business Insider found that Clinton, as of this week, held a 237 to 187 lead over Trump among states that were either safe or likely bets to go in favour of each party’s nominee.
Our findings are outlined in the map above. Business Insider judged that a “safe” state was anywhere a candidate held a greater than 8-point lead, while a “likely” state was anywhere the nominee held a 4- to 8-point lead.
When states that leaned toward a candidate were factored in, Clinton held a 301 to 216 advantage over Trump, enough to secure the presidency. States that were considered to “lean” either in favour of Clinton or Trump were those where the candidate held a 2- to 4-point lead.
The tossups, any state where the major-party nominees held a lead of less than 2 points, consisted of 21 electoral votes. Clinton held very slight leads in North Carolina and Nevada.
In comparison to 2012, Trump has flipped Ohio and Iowa from blue to red, while being locked in a virtual tie in Nevada. Pennsylvania, Colorado, and Florida look to be tougher to flip, but should Trump do so, the election would be his.
For Clinton, she needs to win just two out of these four key states: Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. That would give her enough electoral votes to secure the presidency, even if Colorado and Nevada should turn from blue to red.
As of now, that “blue wall” is holding up. Clinton is currently ahead in three of those four states, although her leads in the RealClearPolitics polling averages were less than 3 points in North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Florida, as of Monday.
Clinton and Trump are set to face off Sunday in the second of three presidential debates. The first, after which Clinton was roundly declared the winner, has helped her take back or expand leads in a number of these swing states.
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