New analysis by Electoral Calculus says the Labour Party winning a majority government at the next general election is virtually impossible.
The statistical probability of a Labour majority in 2020 is — to the nearest percentage point — zero.
The research by Electoral Calculus, which is based on opinion polls and the expected implications of changes to constituency boundaries, shows that Theresa May’s Conservatives would return to government with 90 seats more than needed to attain a majority.
To be exact, the research found that there’s a 77% probability of the Tories forming a majority government in 2020 and a 21% chance of a Conservative-led coalition. By contrast, the probability of a Labour-led coalition is just three per cent, while a Labour majority is close to 0%.
These findings will strengthen the argument of Corbyn’s critics within Labour who say he is unelectable and should be replaced by leadership hopeful Owen Smith. Yet, it is not clear how Smith could turn such a dire situation around if elected leader next month.
The UK Polling Report had already worked out that if people voted in 2020 in exactly the same fashion as they did in 2015, changes to constituency boundaries would increase the Conservative majority from 12 to 48. Britain’s constituency boundaries are set to be re-drawn in 2018 in a shake-up which will see the number of MPs cut from 650 to 600.
Electoral Calculus took the research further by including the results of opinion polls published in July — which gave the Tories an average lead of just over 10%. Based on this calculation, the Conservatives are currently expected to win 345 seats in 2020, while Labour’s presence in the Commons will be reduced to just 182 MPs.
This new research chimes with multiple articles Business Insider has published in the past about the electoral disaster which awaits Labour if it continues down its current path. Under-pressure leader Corbyn said over the weekend that he doesn’t pay too much attention to opinion polls, but it is difficult to see how findings this alarming could be dismissed.
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