The historian who predicted every presidential race since 1984 says Trump likely won’t make a political comeback in 2024

Donald Trump
President Donald J Trump speaks during the final day of the Conservative Political Action Conference CPAC held at the Hyatt Regency Orlando on Sunday, Feb 28, 2021 in Orlando, FL. Jabin Botsford/The Washington Post via Getty Images
  • Professor Allan Lichtman has successfully predicted the outcome of presidential elections since 1984.
  • He thinks Trump is unlikely to run for office again in 2024 successfully.
  • The former president is too mired in legal and financial problems, Lichtman told the Miami Herald.
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The historian renowned for his track record of successfully predicting the outcome of presidential elections has told the Miami Herald that he thinks Donald Trump is unlikely to make a successful bid for re-election in 2024.

Allan Lichtman, a professor of US political history at the American University, has devised a series of “13 keys”, or questions he uses to establish the likelihood of a candidate winning a presidential election, which he revealed in a recent book, Predicting the Next President.

He used the method the successfully project that Trump would be the winner of the 2016 election, when most pundits and bookmakers were ruling out the reality TV star’s chances, and predicted Joe Biden’s win last year.

His track record of successfully predicting the result of presidential elections dates back to 1984.

-Allan Lichtman (@AllanLichtman) October 31, 2020

In comments to the Herald, Lichtman addressed speculation stirred by Trump that he would break with tradition to run for office again in 2024.

Some observers, including Sen. Mitt Romney, have said that Trump is a shoo-in to be the next GOP presidential candidate if he decides to run. But Lichtman is skeptical, telling the Herald that Trump “has too many other challenges facing him” and that he doesn’t think he’ll be the GOP candidate or a third party candidate.

Trump faces a slew of lawsuits after leaving office. Manhattan’s district attorney, Cyrus Vance, is set to investigate allegations of tax and financial crimes at the Trump Organization, and a prosecutor in Georgia launched a criminal probe into allegations Trump illegally sought to subvert the election result.

“He’s got $US400 ($517) million-plus in loans coming due. His brand is failing. His businesses are failing. He has a huge IRS audit. He doesn’t hold office anymore. He’s lost his Twitter feed,” Lichtman said.

Lichtman was apparently referring to a New York Times report last year citing tax records, whose accuracy was disputed by Trump, that he is heavily indebted.

The historian gave Biden 9 out of 10 for his performance so far and said that despite the fact that the president will be 82 in 2024, he wouldn’t rule him out to run for reelection.

“There’s no precedent in American history for starting the presidency at age 78, either. But, as we know, precedents are made to be broken,” said Lichtman.