This discussion with ECRI’s Lakshman Achuthan on All Things Considered is an excellent listen. He explains the Economic Cycle Research Institute’s view that A) the slowdown ahead is already a done deal and can’t be stopped by any government policy we enact and that B) we face the unfortunate prospect of more frequent recessions over the next 10 years. Finally, C) he explains the threat of U.S. unemployment getting worse within the next 10 years before it has fully recovered first. Which means 10%+ unemployment could easily be hit again, even if it first eases back a bit.
In terms of ECRI’s view, it seems that while warnings of an impending double dip recession (in GDP growth terms, ie. GDP declining) are probably too extreme, the real threat right now is that markets, over the next 10 years, will be constantly terrified about the risk of a potential recession happening a few years forward. This could prevent them from ever really breaking out to the upside, Mr. Achuthan explains. It’s a short, concise interview, well worth the time to listen:
(Tip via Pragmatic Capitalism)
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