Ebay (EBAY) reports earnings after the close. Conference call at 2PM Pacific, 5PM Eastern. We will provide live analysis of the release and conference call after the close.


eBay’s stock has rallied off low on stronger-than-expected listings growth. The company’s recent fee changes to its core marketplace appear to have helped–despite the screams of buyers–but the proof will be in the actual sales figures (cutting listing fees should obviously stimulate more listings, but these may not be sustainable and may not have translated to conversions).

In our opinion, however, the most important metric for eBay proper will be Active Users. As the accompanying chart (from the WSJ) shows, eBay’s user growth has fallen to near zero. If the company is to turn its core business around, it has to find a way to draw more users (buyers and sellers) to the site. If it can’t do this, the near-term listings growth is irrelevant.

PayPal is a different business, and its performance should be solid. Same for Skype, which we hope will soon be sold. Guidance should increase for the balance of the year, as eBay always lowballs guidance. (If it doesn’t increase, the company will have missed its own expectations).

Key Metrics:

  • Revenue: $2.06 billion, up 17% (above company guidance of +16%). FX will add at least 500 basis points.
  • EPS: $0.39 (high end of guidance, at least a penny of upside)
  • eBay Marketplace Revenue: $1.35 billion (Doug Anmuth, Lehman)
  • Gross Merchandise Value (GMV): $15.8 billion, up 11% (Goldman)
  • Active Users: 87mm, up 5% (acceleration)
  • Total listings: Approximately 650 million
  • PayPal: Lehman Brothers’ analyst Doug Anmuth estimates revenue of $550 million, up 27%
  • Skype: $120 million-ish (up from $113mm in Q4)

eBay Q1 Earnings: LIVE ANALYSIS (after market close)

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