HedgeFundLIVE.com — Thursday is the last day of the trading week as the equities markets are closed for the Good Friday holiday in the U.S. As part of my seasonality study, I looked at what historically occurs on the day before the markets close for Good Friday. Generally, the market tends to be strong on the Thursday before Good Friday. I am only looking at data that goes back to 1993. But out of the 18 Good Fridays we have seen since then, 12 out of the 18 times, or 2/3 of the time, the market closed up on the day. The average return was up 52bps while the median return was 37bps. Based on my informal research on internet, the day leading up to this holiday does in fact tend to be bullish.Perhaps you are thinking that after Wednesday’s rally, that might have been the pre Good Friday rally. There has only been one Wednesday leading up to a Good Friday in which the market was this strong and that was in 2009 when the SPYs closed up 1.1% (vs. Wednesday’s close of up 1.4%).
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