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After a wild week, we’re ending on a bit of a quiet note (though it’s always possible that hell will break loose in the final hour of the day), so let’s take a quick look at what’s on tap for next week.Before we start, however, it’s worth observing that it was a pretty quiet week for economic data, and perhaps some of the volatility can be explained to the explosion of headlines combined with a lack of hard information.
That’s just a theory.
From Deutsche Bank, here are some of the heavy hitters we’ll be watching:
The production data begin (Monday) morning with the August New York Empire survey, which we expect to move further into negative territory (-5.0 vs. -3.8 previously) as companies may pull back on orders and inventories in light of materially lower economic projections. The same can be said for the Philadelphia Fed index, reported on Thursday (-5.0 vs. +3.2 previously). If there were one positive within the output data this week, it could be July industrial production, which should increase +0.5% as manufacturing hours worked rose in July, as did utility output due to above average temperatures across the country; the risk is for an upside surprise.
- Tuesday: Housing starts and permits
- Wednesday: July PPI (will this show the deflation is cranking up?)
- Thursday: July CPI (Look for a positive 0.2% reading vs. -0.2% last month).
- Thursday: Initial claims (Another sub-400K number would be big).