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The most important economic release there is — the Non-Farm Payrolls Report — is less than a week away (next Friday)Here’s a quick preview, from Nomura:
We are forecasting an increase in total nonfarm payrolls in October of 130k, with private payrolls increasing 150k and manufacturing payrolls rising by 15k. Assuming no revisions to past data, a data release in line with our forecast would lead to a 3-month moving average for job creation of 96k in October, an improvement over September, but sharply slower compared with a high for 2011 of 215k in April. The economic outlook remained “unusually uncertain” in October, still fuelled by fears of European contagion and stock market volatility, which continue to provide powerful headwinds for the labour market recovery. Elsewhere, we believe the average workweek ticked back up to 34.4 hours and average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% on top of an increase of 0.2% in September. We also forecast that the unemployment rate moved down to 9.0% from 9.1% previously.