US durable goods orders fall in September, August revised even lower

The latest report on durable goods orders was not pretty.

The Census Bureau said durable goods fell 1.2% month-on-month. “Core” orders, excluding military and transportation orders, fell 0.4%.

And the August prints were revised lower across the board, with headline durable goods orders lowered to 3% from -2.3%.

The consensus estimate among economists was a drop of 1.5%, according to Bloomberg. Excluding transportation, durables were expected to be flat at 0%.

“Core” orders were forecast to have risen 0.2%.

In a note to clients, Capital Economics’ Steve Murphy wrote:

The 1.2% m/m decline in durable goods orders in September was actually better than we expected, but only because the drag from the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft category wasn’t as bad as we feared. The details of the report suggest that equipment investment expanded only modestly in the third quarter and could be even softer in the fourth quarter. The strong dollar, weak global demand, and the contraction in the energy and manufacturing sectors are all weighing on demand for capital goods.

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