Duke lost to Mercer in the biggest upset of the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday.
This is becoming a theme.
Since 2008 Duke has never been lower than a 3-seed. During that time, they have more 1st- and 2nd-round exits (3), than Elite 8 appearances (2).
They consistently underperform their seed, which suggests that the NCAA Tournament committee is consistently overrating them.
SB Nation put together a chart of expected wins by seed. Based on history, 1-seeds win 3.35 games on average, 2-seeds win 2.40 games, and 3-seeds win 1.86 games. Using that data, we calculated Duke performance relative to their seed since 2008.
It’s not pretty:
They have underperformed seed expectations by a round or more in four of the last seven seasons.
Even with a national championship in 2010, Duke has 4.11 fewer wins than expected since 2008.
Duke has been the marquee program in college basketball for decades. But given this recent history, it might be time to stop giving them the benefit of a doubt when it comes to seeding.
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