Doug Kass, head of Seabreeze Partners, has been bearish on stocks for most of the year.
“I’m getting the ‘summer of 1987 feeling’ in the U.S. equity market,” Kass told CNBC in February, “which means we’re headed for a sharp fall.”
He introduces his list by comparing himself to Johnny Depp:
There is certainly no arrogance in my bearish/top view expressed today, as some of my previous market forecasts have been wrong-footed in a bull market that has been a buy on every dip. Similar to Johnny Depp, who has experienced several high-profile and recent movie flops, I have been chastened (and I am poorer) based on my mistaken market views throughout this year.
But he forges on.
Here’s the ultra-paraphrased version of his list:
1) Low interest rates barely helped, and higher ones will hurt.
2) That said, tapering too soon will also do damage.
3) Kass has no idea where the U.S. economy is going given recent uneven data.
4) Ditto for China.
5) A Larry Summers-led Fed will mean reduced transparency and increased volatility.
6) A debt ceiling fight and/or government shutdown will poison markets.
7) ‘The bull market is long in the tooth’ …
8) … And recent highs have not been confirmed.
9) Market sector leaders like financials and housing are losing momentum.
10) P/E ratios are in imminent danger of collapse.
We respect his consistency.
Read his full explanation on TheStreet.com.