Doug Kass, who started the year rather bullish, has lately adopted a more cautious tone. On February 7, Kass sent out a blast titled SELL EVERYTHING, after he found out that Nouriel Roubini’s director of equity strategy expressed some bullishness.
In his latest post on RealMoneyPro, Kass maintains his cautious tone, noting that stocks are above his fair market calculation.
“While I recognise the positive price momentum and the possibility of a further overshoot of my fair-value calculation, I remain cautious over the shorter term,” he wrote.
Kass also identified six risks to the economy that he and Roubini agreed on:
- the price of oil (on Monday it rose to $105 a barrel);
- broadening geopolitical risk in the Middle East;
- a slowdown in the emerging markets (especially in China and India);
- the continued reliance on monetary policy (and neglect of pro-growth fiscal policy);
- an unrealistic U.S. budget that is dependent upon assumptions that would embarrass even the tooth fairy; and
- the changing political backdrop, which now favours an incumbent presidential win.
Kass believes the current fair market valuation of the S&P 500 is 1,345. However, he maintains that the S&P could see a new high of around 1,550 this year, noting that the target “seems substantially less of an outlier today than two months ago.”
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