Doug Kass disputes our characterization of his market calls, and says he’s been totally forthright about having been wrong, at times, during this rally.
He notes that at RealMoney.com — which we rarely see, and which doesn’t get much media attention — he’s written several times about his mistakes. On August 6, he wrote:
On Being Wrong
8/6/2009 8:11 AM EDT
No one, and I mean no one — in the media or outside of it — writes or says they are wrong in a market view.
Indeed, it seems that almost everyone reflects that they bought the bottom (March 2009) and sold the top in 2008.
But I will say it — I have been wrong of late.
There you have it.
As Grandma Koufax used to say, “Dougie, honesty is the best policy.”
On the 10th, as part of a longer post, he wrote:
I agree with Jim (and many others) that growth will be subpar. Where Jim and I seem to part company is that, given the headwinds, my baseline expectation is one of uneven, inconsistent and lumpy growth for some time to come, difficult for corporate managers (who no longer have pricing power) and investment managers to navigate. It might very well look like we are coming out of recession in one quarter and then one or two quarters later appear that we are going back into recession. Unlike bulls (like Jim). I don’t see “smoothness” in the years ahead, and a healthy scepticism, if not rewarded in an absolute sense, should keep an investor out of trouble and from making big mistakes in 2009 and beyond.
I have suggested (prematurely!) that this is not an outlook that provides support to a normal or outsized exposure to equities and credit, which have been the World’s Fair since March when I made the generational bottom call.
I will end on the following important note. It should be recognised, that, as I have written on RealMoolah, Jim has been very right about a continued market rally, and I have, admittedly, been way wrong!
And he provided us with other examples of such.
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