Don’t Believe The Hype: Tomorrow’s GDP Will Have Little Impact On QE

There has been lots of commentary this week that the third revision of Q4 US GDP will be critical to the Fed’s thinking on the need for additional QE. Really?

The third revision to the fourth quarter of last year’s GDP will guide the Fed moving forward? Naw. No way.

The Fed is forward looking. They are far more concerned with what is in the pipeline ahead than looking in the rear-view mirror. They are quite concerned that warm US winter weather is pulling growth forward into early 2012 from later in the year, resulting in a subsequent slowdown later if the economy does not pick up its over all pace.

January and February data has been quite favourable though March data has turned mixed. Signs of life in the housing market have begun to peter out. The Fed will look long and hard at incoming data, not focus on what happened almost 6 months ago.

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