Now the Irish 10-year is yielding more than 7.4%, yet another post-crisis high.
What’s the catalyst today? A new election is likely coming, adding to political stability.
There have been three seats vacant in the parliament due to members retiring/dying etc. for a while – now four after yesterday’s resignation of Jim McDaid.
Because the government’s majority has been so slim, they have not ‘moved the writ’ (ie allow) for the by-elections.
Senator Pierce Doherty (of Sinn Fein) brought a case to the high court saying that the delay was a breech of his constitutional rights, as his constituency (south Donegal) was under-represented in the parliament. – it had been 17 months since the previous holder of seat retired.
This morning, he won his case, with the court saying the delay was a breech of his rights.
So Sinn Fein will move the writ for the by-election tomorrow morning in the Dáil(Parliament) and it should be passed meaning a by-election before the end of November (and importantly before the budget).
This ruling is only for one of the (now) four vacant seats, but the precedent is set and it does increase the likelihood of the gov calling a general election rather than having one forced on them by losing all four seats and thereby losing their majority.
For more background, see here.