Republican presidential frontrunner Donald Trump’s dominant start to the presidential primary process looks like it could continue over the next several weeks, according to polls surveying upcoming state’s contests.
A total of 13 states hold primaries or caucuses over the next two weeks. Of those states, Trump is leading polls in nine, according to the RealClearPolitics average, including some of the most important, winner-take-all states.
The other states — Hawaii, Maine, and Idaho, and Missouri — don’t have any recent polls listed on the site. They’re also the three states with the fewest delegates to award. And, in Maine, Trump has the endorsement of Paul LePage, the state’s governor.
Between the other nine states — most of which are among the largest in terms of delegates during the election cycle — Trump is leading in each by double-digits, save for Ohio, where he has a five-point lead.
Here’s how Trump is faring in those states, based on individual polls or RealClearPolitics polling averages:
- Kansas Republican caucus (40 delegates): Trump is up 12 points
- Kentucky Republican primary (45 delegates): Trump is up 13 points
- Louisiana Republican primary (47 delegates): Trump is up 19 points
- Michigan Republican primary (59 delegates): Trump is up 15.4 points
- Mississippi Republican primary (40 delegates): Trump is up 24 points
- Florida Republican primary (99 delegates — winner take all): Trump is up 18.7 points (and ahead of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio)
- Illinois Republican primary (69 delegates): Trump is up 15.5 points
- North Carolina Republican primary (72 delegates): Trump is up 10.3 points
- Ohio Republican primary (66 delegates — winner take all): Trump is up five points (ahead of Ohio Gov. John Kasich)
Nearly 600 delegates will be in play over the course of the next two weeks — roughly half of what is needed to secure the Republican nomination — in the above states. And more than 150 are up for grabs in the four states that lack polling, plus the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, which also hold elections. Polling is unavailable for the two territories.
Of course, polls are volatile depending on the course of the race and haven’t always been accurate in predicting the winners.
Case in point: Iowa, where Trump was leading in most polls, but Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas eventually won. Trump was also leading in polls prior to Super Tuesday in Minnesota, where he lost to Rubio, and Oklahoma and Alaska, where he lost to Cruz. Trump also proved polls wrong in Arkansas by beating Cruz, who was favoured.
But polls have been accurate in predicting Trump wins in New Hampshire, South Carolina, Nevada, Vermont, Virginia, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, and Tennessee.
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