Business Insider’s weekly in-depth economics and markets podcast, Devils and Details, is coming LIVE to The Ivy in Sydney on November 27th, from 6.30pm. We’ve got a stellar line-up of some of Australia’s most forthright and insightful commentators and analysts, with panels to discuss investment, property, and the outlook for 2019. Tickets are $50 and include drinks and canapes on the night.
Ahead of the event, we’ve asked some of our panellists for some thoughts on a few key issues. Here’s Laura Fitzsimmons, Executive Director, Macro Sales at J.P. Morgan.
1. What are the key economic factors, at the global level or at home in Australia, you are watching most closely as we head towards 2019?
Everyone is continuing to remain focused on US economic momentum and what it means for the remainder of the Fed tightening cycle as we approach neutral rates. This, along with the prospect of a deeper trade war, is what is driving everything at the moment. As such, the NFIB index and the US PMIs will continue to feature heavily in shaping my view for 2019.
On China, I am watching closely their level of FX reserves as it dwindles towards the $3 trillion mark, and the continuing slowdown in Total Social Financing.
2. Can you share a favourite unusual economic indicator you like to watch closely? Explain why it interests you.
The thing with “unusual” economic indicators is that if they were any good, they would tracked by everyone and would be therefore, by definition, “usual”! But amongst the more reliable indicators that are followed out there, keeping an eye on job openings and “hard-to-hire” labour shortage indicators in the US have been useful in determining the so far enduring strength of the US labour market. The NFIB labour quality metrics are also worthwhile. Likewise the J.P. Morgan Recession Risk Model is also something I like to keep a close eye on.
3. What’s the most important piece of career advice you have to offer?
Don’t plan your career too meticulously. Always be open to different opportunities and changes as they come along.
Catch Laura Fitzsimmons at Business Insider Australia’s live event on November 27th >>