The headlines out of Greece will not stop.
As we type these words, the latest update is that on Saturday, Greece will have a final chance to reach an agreement with its creditors before its June 30 deadline to pay back €1.5 billion to the IMF.
Some officials described this as a “take it or leave it” meeting to Reuters.
But what’s most likely to happen and what’s really at stake?
Via Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid, here’s one of the easiest-to-understand breakdowns we’ve seen of just what we’re looking at over the next couple days:
The DB house view (and ours) is that a last minute deal continues to be the most likely outcome. However if there was ever a situation that could bring an accident then no-one would really be shocked if it was this one. If there was an accident expect markets to have a period of notable instability but one would think that central banks would flood the system with even more liquidity if things escalated. Given this and the reduced contagion risks now vs. 2011/2012, the negativity should last days or weeks rather than months. It would likely be a big blow to the longer-term sustainability of the Euro given that it sets a precedent but that’s a medium-term story. If a deal is struck we should see a big relief rally in risk as it seems investors have stayed on the sideline of late. Capital market activity would likely pick up after a relatively quiet couple of months in Europe due to first higher yields and more recently Greece. So a lot at stake over the next couple of days.
So, some short-lived volatility and longer-term questions about the Euro if there isn’t a deal.
Or, a big rally as investors finally get something like closure from Greece.
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