Stock markets around the globe are getting destroyed, and there are at least 10 reasons to think that the bloodletting isn’t quite over.
Deutsche Bank’s David Bianco compiled and circulated a list to clients early on Friday outlining the reasons why the S&P 500 “likely dips 5-10% or possibly more first.”
Here are the 10 reasons:
- Poor S&P 500 sales and EPS growth, even ex. Energy
- Demanding valuations vs. history, especially ex. big Banks and Tech
- Plunge in commodity prices has taken another significant down leg
- Strong dollar with further upside likely even upon modest Fed hikes
- Subpar US growth trends with weak productivity and investment
- US and DM acceleration unlikely to offset slowdown in China and EM
- Record high S&P margins, approaching record years of EPS growth
- 3.5+ years since the last correction, no 5%+ dip yet in 2015
- Fed hikes loom on tightening job market despite slow GDP/ low CPI
- No sign of baton pass to investor equity demand as buybacks plateau
Bianco’s been way out front with his calls for caution. We should note that Bianco published his particular note on Friday when the S&P 500 was at 2,035. It’s since tumbled as much as 8.2% to a low of 1,867 on Monday.
While his short-term call at the time was for prices to fall, he also predicted another rally would follow.
“Low bond yields are one (big) reason for the S&P to climb 5-10% in 6 months,” he said.
So that’s something to look forward to.
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