DEUTSCHE BANK: Momentum From The Warm Winter Is Saving The Housing Market

Sunset Sunrise Sun Hazy Better GoodThe planet Venus passes before the sun, a very rarely-seen event, in Orange, California.

Photo: David McNew/Getty Images

We may have reached a bottom in housing bottom calls.Deutsche Bank’s Joe LaVorgna writes today that enough positive dots can be connected to make a trend: housing is back.

And it’s not because of the weather.

“It is interesting to note that as we progress through the important spring selling season, we have yet to see any signs of deterioration in the data that would suggest that sales were pulled forward due to the unseasonably warm winter.”

Here’s his evidence:

  • April housing starts were 717k versus 712k for all of Q1 while permits were 723k versus 720k
  • Current conditions for single-family sales improved two points to 32—the highest level since March 2007 (36)
  • The June NAHB index rose one point to 29 and now stands at the highest level since May 2007 (30)
  • CoreLogic house prices increased at a +4.7% annualized pace in Q1, the largest gain since Q3 2009 (+5.0%)
  • Equity was up $333 billion in Q1 2012 from its year earlier level, the largest gain since 2005

Looks good to us.

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