Deutsche Bank: Here's What To Expect From Today's Jobs Report

1920s Soup Line Unemployment

Photo: Wikimedia

Today’s unemployment report may end up disappointing, according to Deutsche Bank, who see potential problems with its prediction for greater than 100,000 private payroll gains.From Deutsche Bank, emphasis theirs:

We are projecting Census layoffs to total roughly -230k, which thereby pushes our projection for the total payroll change to -150k. This projection assumes non-Census government payrolls also decline, which has been the trend of late (roughly -22k in May). We expect the unemployment rate to decline by a tenth (to 9.6%), and we will pay close attention to the private employment component of the Household Survey because it has shown much stronger year-to-date job gains (+1478k) than its private nonfarm payroll counterpart (+495k).

After yesterday’s negative numbers in manufacturing and housing, disappointment in unemployment won’t surprise, but it certainly will have an impact on confidence in the recovery.

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