Deutsche Bank: Here's What To Expect From Today's Jobs Report

1920s Soup Line Unemployment

Photo: Wikimedia

Today’s unemployment report may end up disappointing, according to Deutsche Bank, who see potential problems with its prediction for greater than 100,000 private payroll gains.From Deutsche Bank, emphasis theirs:

We are projecting Census layoffs to total roughly -230k, which thereby pushes our projection for the total payroll change to -150k. This projection assumes non-Census government payrolls also decline, which has been the trend of late (roughly -22k in May). We expect the unemployment rate to decline by a tenth (to 9.6%), and we will pay close attention to the private employment component of the Household Survey because it has shown much stronger year-to-date job gains (+1478k) than its private nonfarm payroll counterpart (+495k).

After yesterday’s negative numbers in manufacturing and housing, disappointment in unemployment won’t surprise, but it certainly will have an impact on confidence in the recovery.

NOW WATCH: Money & Markets videos

Want to read a more in-depth view on the trends influencing Australian business and the global economy? BI / Research is designed to help executives and industry leaders understand the major challenges and opportunities for industry, technology, strategy and the economy in the future. Sign up for free at research.businessinsider.com.au.