DEUTSCHE: Stay calm, the adults are back in charge

‘Can you keep your spurs from jingling and jangling?’ Picture: Miramax FIlms

Last week was not a fun one. Markets, investors, and traders were gripped with an acute bout of risk aversion as fear swept through.

Stocks around the globe tanked. In the US, the S&P 500 dropped 6% while the Dow lost 6.2%. In the UK, the FTSE dropped 5.3% while the DAX in Germany was hammered more than 8% lower.

In Asia, the Shanghai composite was down 10%, in Tokyo stocks fell 7%, while the ASX dropped 6.2% to close the week below 5,000 at 4,990.

Crude oil in New York fell to the lowest level since December 2008, an the Australian dollar fell more than 4%. At 0.6950 is only 60 points above the 2015 lows.

Gold didn’t something it has done in months. It rallied to close the week above $1,100 an ounce for the first time since late October 2015.

No-one expected the year to kick off with such a bang.

But this type of volatility is not uncommon after holidays, according to the strategy team at Deutsche Bank, who say that traders should stay calm.

Their message is simply. Volatility is volatility. Markets rose before the Christmas break in thin markets and have likewise drifted back on thin markets.

Net-net? Relax, not much has changed.

Here’s what they said:

Stay calm – You see the same thing after many holidays: while some senior portfolio managers squeeze out a few more days away, market jitters have their juniors squealing for mummy and reaching for the sell button. Expect a tad more perspective next week when bosses switch on their screens for the first time since December 18th.

Indeed, from that date the Footsie is flat while the S&P 500 is down only three per cent. European stocks are just one per cent below where they were in that final full week. Likewise, ten year treasury, bund and gilt yields have barely moved at all, nor has the euro against the dollar.

And for all the fuss the renminbi has weakened just 1.6 per cent and Chinese stocks were at these levels as recently as October. Next week is the real test of sentiment.

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