DEUTSCHE BANK: There will be a second referendum -- just not the one you expect

Many anti-Brexit campaigners have been calling for a second referendum on the question of European Union membership and even Tony Blair and Richard Branson have floated the idea.

But Deutsche Bank thinks it’s more likely we’ll see another vote on the final deal to leave.

The bank says in a note last week that it is “likely that the British public will be offered a vote on the final [EU] exit deal, whenever that is finally agreed.”

Deutsche Bank says that given the leave campaign was fought on terms of sovereignty, the British people will likely want a say on the final deal.

Deutsche Bank expects a deal to be finalised sometime in 2019. But the bank wryly notes: “One thing we can be confident about — even more so than with economic forecasts — is that political uncertainty will almost surely require a regular re-write of our expectations for the above timeline.”

Britain surprised the world by voting to leave the European Union last month but what that looks like is unclear. It has become apparent that no one on the Leave side had a concrete plan for withdrawal and there is no precedent for a country leaving the 28-country bloc.

The investment bank expects a Canadian-style trade deal that gives the UK limited access to European single market but does not include freedom of movement or contributions to EU financing. It says: “Only the very major issues are settled at this stage, with many more years of bargaining required to complete the deal.”

Here’s what that would look like:

Deutsche Bank also agrees with JPMorgan on Scotland, saying it’s highly likely there will be a second independence referendum there that will lead to the country leaving the United Kingdom.

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