Deutsche Bank has a slightly different take on the state of the U.S. employment market arguing that “private household job creation is booming.”
They argue that the Household Survey, rather than the Establishment survey, better explains job growth in a period like that which we are in, even though it surveys 340,000 less respondents.
From Deutsche Bank (emphasis ours):
However, we believe that over a longer period, such as the year-to-date snapshot, the household data are particularly useful, especially around economic inflection points. Thus far, private household employment is up 2.3 million compared to just 763k for private nonfarm payrolls. We expect this gap to close as the latter is eventually revised substantially higher, consistent with recent precedent.
Deutsche Bank then argue that this data could put all talk of a double-dip to bed (emphasis ours):
One, the probability of a double-dip has fallen further. Two, the underlying health of the consumer is better than what we believe is commonly assumed. Therefore, we should expect to see some improvement in consumer spending in the months immediately ahead.
Take a look at the comparison chart, noting the current gap between the Household Survey and the Establishment Survey.
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