Deutsche Bank On How Retail Sales Performed In October

shopping mall

Photo: davidyuweb, Flickr

From Deutsche Bank:A Look Back: October Results May Be Soft . . . But Well Advertised On the numbers, our DB Retail SSS Index looks to rise 3.9% in October (vs. 5.3% in September), which implies a 330 bps deceleration on a 2-yr. basis as the confluence of buyer fatigue (post BTS), unseasonably warm weather (3rd warmest October in 19 years), and dizzying market volatility all impacted sales. With this in mind, conventional wisdom would suggest an unfavorable set-up into comps on Thursday as the convergence of these potentially softer comps meets the groups strong stock performance (monthly reporters +12.7%, on avg., since 10/6 vs. SPX +10.3%) head on. Importantly, we think the smart money will fade this herd mentality and look ahead for 3 reasons: (1)October’s soft results have been well-advertised by analysts and various 3rd party surveys (e.g. ICSC & Redbook); (2) the trend is our friend as colder weather led to improved mall traffic and better sales volume in weeks 3/4 of the month; and (3) October is inconsequential overall, representing just ~30% of 3Q. Separately and maybe more importantly, if recent trends in elasticity/demand destruction hold true, the set-up for GPM in 2012 remains extremely favourable as IMU’s look to expand as product costs drop.

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