Deutsche Bank says the 10-year yield is going under 2%.
On Friday, the 10-year yield hit a new low for the year, closing at 2.1%.
In early trade on Monday, yields were backing up some, but after a worse-than-expected Empire State manufacturing report, the 10-year was back near its closing level from Friday.
In a note to clients over the weekend, Dominic Konstam and his team at Deutsche Bank wrote:
“We think we are in risk off again. It may seem a little less dramatic than in October but that might be a cause for greater concern. We think investors should focus on hedging credit longs through buying volatility and low strike receivers. A near-term break of 2 per cent in 10s seems quite likely.”
Steve Feiss, government rates strategist at Government Perspectives, alerted us to figures noting that Treasury speculators are net short 10-year futures by the most they have been since April… of 2012.
So some in the market are betting that rates are going higher.
Except all they have done this year is go lower.
And Deutsche Bank doesn’t think the bottom is in yet.
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