Deutsche Bank’s global research team just published their “House View” of the world economy. Here are the key bullets from the 27-page chartbook:
- “The global macro picture has remained resilient over the past month with stronger data from China and the US (despite some hurricane-related weakness). In Europe, there was some evidence of stability in the periphery, though also of a continuing slowdown in the core.”
- “The US fiscal cliff has become the key focal point for markets. The outcome of the fiscal cliff negotiations is the main risk to our view that global growth is bottoming-out and will accelerate from H2 2013. Ultimately, we expect a compromise will be reached by year-end. However, given the uncertainty and brinkmanship that will likely accompany the negotiations, we should expect some market volatility until a resolution is found.”
- “Looking into 2013, we are encouraged by the continued intention of central banks to maintain accommodative policy. Asia is picking up, systemic risk has been reduced in Europe and the US economy is relatively robust. We maintain our structurally constructive view. Given current market pricing, equities continue to offer the best risk-adjusted return compared to other asset classes.”
Here’s their whole outlook:
Photo: Deutsche Bank
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