Photo: Shanna Mari / Flickr
The composition of the Federal Open Market Committee has been tweaked for the new year.But fans of loose monetary policy need not worry.
“The overall profile of voting members of the FOMC does not change significantly this year, as one moderate (Pianalto), one hawk (Lacker) and two doves (Williams and Lockhart) rotate off of the voting roster to be replaced by two doves (Evans and Rosengren) and two hawks (Bullard and George),” writes Deutsche Bank economist Carl Riccadonna.
The odds of more dissenting votes has increased. But this is unlikely to derail Chairman Ben Bernanke’s current path.
“Although, with two hawkish members the prospect for a second dissent on policy votes is more likely—even so, a second (or even third) dissent is not unprecedented and will do little to dissuade the dovish-leaning core of the Committee,” writes Riccadonna. “In other words, as long as the Committee’s leadership—namely Chairman Bernanke, New York Fed President Dudley and Vice Chair Yellen—is dominated by doves and supported by a cadre of relatively dovish-leaning Governors, the current policy tack will be maintained.”
But given the surprisingly hawkish tone of the last FOMC minutes, ” it will be critical to monitor the tone of commentary from potential “swing voters” on the Committee, particularly if economic conditions (or inflation) begin to pick-up.”
Here’s Deutsche Bank “Hawk-O-Meter”:
Photo: Deutsche Bank