Once Wall Street's Most Controversial Bull, David Bianco Now Has The Most Cautious Outlook For Stocks

David biancoBloombergDavid Bianco

Deutsche Bank’s David Bianco has had a reputation for being one Wall Street’s biggest bulls.

During fall of 2011 while stocks were tumbling and economic data were deteriorating, he went full contrarian and cranked up his price target on the S&P 500. Some speculated this led to his ouster from the Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

Today, it’s hard to argue that he’s more bullish than his peers.

In a new note to clients, Bianco reiterates his call for the S&P 500 to hit 1,850 in 2014, a forecast he first made in June.

1,850 is the lowest target of the 12+ Wall Street strategists followed by Business Insider.

“We think the S&P likely stays within +/- 5% range from 1800 for the next several months as investors watch EPS and interest rate trends,” wrote Bianco. “We expect 2014 to be a year of normal EPS growth, normal PEs, normal total returns, but also normal volatility. Normal volatility includes at least one S&P 500 price dip of 5% -9.9%. Since 1960, the only years when the S&P didn’t suffer a 5%+ dip were 1964, 1993 & 1995. We see low risk of a correction when less than 1850.”

This is not to say Bianco is a bear. He expects the S&P 500 to reach 2,000 by 2015. But he’s “uncertain” about the direction of the market’s next 5% move.

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