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The Denver Broncos are the #1 seed in the AFC, the #1 team in most power rankings, and the Vegas favourites to win the Super Bowl.So it’s odd to say that we really don’t know how good this team is.
But it’s true. Here’s why.
Denver has played five games against playoff teams, and they’re 2-3. They lost to Atlanta, Houston, and New England early in the year, and beat Baltimore and Cincinnati.
They played 10 games against sub-.500 teams, and four games against the Raiders and Chiefs, who are a combined 6-26.
They dominated. But they did so against a soft schedule, and their best two wins are against two of the weaker teams in the playoffs. According to Football Outsiders, Denver had the second-easiest schedule in the entire league.
Here’s how each playoff team did against the other 11 playoff teams this year.
- Atlanta Falcons: 2-0 (wins against Denver, Washington)
- Seattle Seahawks: 4-1 (wins against Green Bay, New England, Minnesota, San Francisco)
- Indianapolis Colts: 3-2 (wins against Minnesota, Green Bay, Houston)
- San Francisco 49ers: 3-2 (wins against Green Bay, Seattle, New England)
- New England Patriots: 3-3 (wins against Denver, Indianapolis, Houston)
- Cincinnati Bengals: 2-2 (wins against Washington, Baltimore)
- Washington Redskins: 2-2 (wins against Minnesota, Baltimore)
- Houston Texans: 3-4 (wins against Denver, Baltimore, Indianapolis)
- Minnesota Vikings: 3-4 (wins against San Francisco, Houston, Green Bay)
- Denver Broncos: 2-3 (wins against Baltimore, Cincinnati)
- Baltimore Ravens: 2-4 (wins against Cincinnati, New England)
- Green Bay Packers: 2-4 (wins against Houston, Minnesota)
The Broncos have been impressive since the first month of the season. And most statistical metrics say they are just as good as their record indicates.
But there is reason to be cautious.