President Obama

Popular vote close. Electoral vote not close. Fat lady singing.

  • McCain can’t win — CNN
  • McCain HQ has turned off the news.
  • Virginia latest: Obama has caught up.  Now 48% Obama to 49% McCain
  • Ohio to Obama — FOX, CNN. No Repub has ever won w/o winning Ohio.
  • FL: Obama ahead 51% with 56% of vote in.  If Florida goes to Obama, it’s over. Latest here
  • John Carney: CNN just called Kentucky for McConnell, and Chambliss is ahead in Georgia (although he needs to do better than 50% in a three way race to avoid a run off). This could mean the Republicans hold enough seats for a filibuster, limiting Democrats from gaining ultimate political power.
  • John Carney:  More gloom in McCain HQ. Source inside campaign says the most particularly worrisome result has been exit polls showing McCain is doing five percentage points worse among evangelical voters. This is bad because it probably undercounts the damage of McCain losing evangelicals, since many stayed home. Getting 73% of voting evangelicals (versus Bush’s 78%), probably actually means millions of votes lost from evangelicals who didn’t even vote in this election.
  • CNN analysts keep remembering to say “if” after talking about big Obama victory
  • Midwestern states and NY now in. No surprises.
  • Ohio: Obama 58% lead with 7% in.
  • Virginia: McCain holding 51% to 48% lead with 55% of vote in.  
  • Indiana latest: McCain 51% with 56% in.
  • FL: Obama ahead 52% with 48% of vote in.  Latest here
  • Gergen: This is not just a win for Obama–it could be a VERY BIG win.
  • Conservative Bill Kristol concedes overwhelming Republican losses, including presidency
  • Source in McCain HQ: Mood now “grim” after Pennsylvania loss.
  • PA to Obama — NBC, ABC, CBS, FOX, CNN
  • FL: Obama ahead 52% with 42% of vote in.  Latest here
  • Elizabeth Dole loses seat to Dem. Kay Hagan.
  • PA and FL too close for CNN to call.
  • Obama carries CT, NH, IL, NJ, ME, MD, DC, DL, MA.  TN and OK to McCain — Now 77 to 34 EV Obama.  CNN
  • South Carolina to McCain, as expected — CNN
  • Indiana: 26% of vote in, McCain holding 51% advantage.  Obama still running ahead of Kerry.
  • Boatload of critical states closing at 8PM ET. If Obama wins Florida, it’s over.  HuffPo exit poll has him way ahead.
  • Florida for Obama (exit poll): From source in Obama HQ, rumoured internal exit polls has FL for Obama 51-47.
  • HuffPo exit polls (see below) have Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida solidly for Obama.

Exit Polls from Huff Po (unreliable, have skewed for Dems in past):

For Obama:

Florida: 52 per cent to 44 per cent
Iowa: 52 per cent to 48 per cent
Missouri: 52 per cent to 48 per cent
North Carolina: 52 per cent to 48 per cent
New Hampshire: 57 per cent to 43 per cent
Nevada: 55 per cent to 45 per cent
Pennsylvania: 57 per cent to 42 per cent
Ohio: 54 per cent to 45 per cent
Wisconsin: 58 per cent to 42 per cent
Indiana: 52 per cent to 48 per cent
New Mexico: 56 per cent to 43 per cent
Minnesota: 60 per cent to 39 per cent
Michigan: 60 per cent to 39 per cent

  • The states where McCain is leading in exit polls (Huff Po): Georgia: 51 per cent to 47 per cent West Virginia: 45 per cent to 55 per cent
  • Indiana latest: McCain 51% with 20% in.
  • Virginia latest: McCain 55% with 5% in (VA state numbers, via Drudge)
  • Florida: Latest here.  Obama up 57%/38% with 2% in.
  • Indiana: Early reporting shows Obama doing much better than Kerry, McCain still ahead — CNN, 538
  • Vermont to Obama as expected (3), Kentucky to McCain as expected (8) — CNN
  • CNN doing cool “hologram” thing where they project Chicago anchor into New York war room.  Looks like the droid projections in Star Wars.
  • ABC says 13% of all voters were black, up only slightly from 2004.
  • A fresh batch from Gawker, but even they’re sceptical, however this is interesting:  “Among white voters, 58% are backing McCain, while 41% are supporting Obama. In 2004, Kerry won 32% of the vote here while Bush won 68% of it.”=
  • Shocker! CNN says McCain carrying the white evangelical vote. BUT: McCain currently getting 72% of this demographic, compared to 78% for George Bush
  • On Twitter, Atlantic reporter Marc Ambinder says Obama is overperforming among the white working class.
  • TOO CLOSE TO CALL AT CLOSE: FL, IN, OH… — Drudge
  • McCain campaign allegedly texting Virginia students saying “avoid long lines, vote tomorrow!” — Rock The Vote
  • Liberal blog MyDD has a bash of fresh numbers from “multiple sources” all pointing to good numbers for Obama.
  • National Review claims exceptionally strong turnout in Ohio counties won by Bush in 2004.
  • New Hampshire actual results: Obama 66.7%, McCain 33.3%, with 0.66% of precincts reporting — Politico
  • Exit polls show Obama big — Drudge
  • Obama + 15 in Pennsylvania, says Drudge.  This directly contradicts Gawker numbers below, which show tight results.

Margins on key states closer than polls — Gawker (see graphic below)

  • Sarah Palin a drag on the McCain ticket — Huffington Po
  • FOX reportedly saying among new voters, Obama winning heavily in key battleground states (see below). — National Review

Fox reporting that new voters make up 10% of voters nationwide. Polls are still open, remember. In the following states, Fox reports that the break down of new voters is 

Obama McCain  Indiana 73 27  Virginia 69 31  Ohio 63 36

Among white men:

             Obama  McCain

Indiana     44          54

Virginia     47          51

Ohio         39         58

  • Dems see 58 seats, Senate sources — Drudge
  • Economy single biggest issue (62%) –CNN
  • Iraq second-most important issue (10% nationally) — CNN
  • More voters feared McCain presidency than Obama presidency — HuffPo
  • Drudge winning breaking news game, nothing on Huff Po, Politico

See Also:
How To Read Exit Polls
2008 Exit Polls: Where The Hell Are They?
Hell, Yes, We’ll Be Reporting the Exit Polls

 

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