Without a doubt, one of the most powerful forces in economics is demographics. “Demographics is destiny” is a frequently asserted line, and for good reason.
The concept is simple but powerful. The black line represents the number of 20- to 24-year-olds in the population. The purple line represents the number of employed 25- to 34-year-olds. The purple line is lagged to demonstrate that the number of employed 25- to 34-year-olds trails the number of 20- 24-year-olds by about 10 years.
As you can see, there’s been a big upward rise in the number of 20- to 24-year-olds, which means that in the years ahead there will be a big boom in the number of 25- 34-year-old workers, at least according to a pattern that’s nearly 70 years old.
This is a big deal: Working 25- to 34-year-olds will be a major force in household creation and they will see major jumps in income and spending.
While there are legitimate concerns about the ageing population of the U.S., that’s only one part of the story. The other story is a major boom coming from young workers.