- Pollsters and political strategists in both parties are predicting that Republicans will lose their majority in the US House this fall.
- Political strategist Chris Krueger told Axios that there are four “glaring red flags” for the GOP.
- These include the president’s low approval rating, the GOP’s endangered California and Pennsylvania delegations, suburban dissatisfaction with the GOP, and the fact that the president will not be on the ballot.
Pollsters and political strategists in both parties are predicting that Republicans will lose their majority in the US House this fall, jeopardizing President Donald Trump’s policy agenda and putting him at a higher risk of impeachment.
Democrats need to flip 24 seats this year to take control of the House and make House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi speaker.
Chris Krueger, managing director of Cowen & Co.’s Washington Research Group, laid out in a note to clients on Monday that he sees four “glaring red flags” for the Republican majority in the House (h/t Axios):
- First, he pointed out that in every instance – there have been six – in which the president’s approval rating has been below 50% in the lead up to midterm elections, the president’s party has lost an average of 40 seats.
- Krueger argues that California and Pennsylvania alone could lead Democrats halfway to victory. In California, where anti-Trump sentiment is sky high, there are 14 House Republicans. He says that combining retirements, dissatisfaction with the tax bill – which eliminates significant local and state tax deductions that impact Californians – and general frustration with the president, at least seven of those Congress members could be gone. And in Pennsylvania, the state supreme court just approved a Democratic-led redistricting effort that will endanger the state’s delegation along with general anti-Trump feeling.
- Krueger says the suburbs will pose a major problem for the GOP, which saw dramatic defeats in Virginia and New Jersey last fall. There are 23 House Republicans in districts, many of them suburban, that Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton won in 2016.
- Lastly, he predicts many of Trump’s 2016 supporters won’t be motivated to vote on a ticket that doesn’t include Trump. Krueger says that Trump voters are specifically motivated by the president, and won’t rush to the polls this fall to support “generic House Republicans.” “You do not drain the swamp by reelecting the establishment and the deep state,” he wrote.