Declining UPS/FedEx Deliveries Indicate Recession

Together, UPS and FedEx deliver 80 per cent of packages in the U.S. and the total volume of shipments they handle is a proxy for economic activity. Both companies have reported that those volumes are down.

UPS says that its volumes dropped in Q1, though it refused to specify by how much, and FedEx reports that its volumes were down 2% last quarter. With other bellwethers like Union Pacific and GE struggling, UPS and FedEx’s weakness does not auger well for the broader macro environment.

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