Despite some wild swings in this year the S&P 500 has so far made it through 2015 basically unchanged.
Through the end of November the benchmark index was up about 1% and as highlighted by JC O’Hara at FBN Securities, this is good news for December.
“The eleven years when the market was basically unchanged through November (-2.5% to +2.5%), the market returned +3.2% in December with only one down December in 1934 (-.4%),” wrote O’Hara in a note to clients Tuesday.
“History suggests the potential for a chase into year end and a good chance for positive December 2015.”
Additionally, O’Hara said the most recent analogue for 2015’s market — 2011 — had a strong year-end run.
“2011 started its move higher into year-end on December 20th, after some mid-month weakness,” O’Hara wrote.
And so if history is any guide the holidays are going to very happy in the markets.
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