Analysts are beginning to
warn about the possibility of a debt-ceiling crisis, as Congress is still in the midst of debating a
continuing resolution to avoid a government shutdown.
Chris Krueger, a D.C.-based analyst for Guggenheim Partners LLC, wrote in a market commentary Wednesday that there is a 40% chance of “technical default scenarios” as a result of the looming fight over raising the debt ceiling. What’s more — the 60% chance Krueger sees of no default is based on nothing more than “blind faith,” he wrote.
“Putting the theatrics and brinksmanship around the government shutdown aside, at least there is a relatively clear path forward,” Krueger wrote of the shutdown fight.
“The path forward on the debt ceiling remains a total mystery and our 60% probability that the U.S. will not enter into technical default scenarios is based on nothing more than blind faith.”
The nation’s debt limit needs to be raised by mid-October, Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said last month. The White House has said it won’t negotiate over raising the debt ceiling like it did in 2011, because of the precedent it fears it could set on negotiations revolving around the full faith and credit of the U.S.
Republicans are demanding some kinds of concessions in exchange for hiking the debt limit. House Republicans will push a bill this week that includes a laundry list of conservative “goodies” — a delay in implementation of Obamacare, construction of the Keystone XL pipeline, and Medicare means testing, to name a few.
Potomac Research Group also sounded the alarm over the debt ceiling in a research note on Wednesday. The group was perplexed that Wall Street hasn’t been more wary of the looming crisis and said it might take a market freak out to force a deal.
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