There's an emerging solution to the debt ceiling mess

With only about three weeks until Congress brushes up on the deadline to raise the nation’s debt limit, emerging signals indicate that outgoing House Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio) could move to resolve the issue before he leaves office.

The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office said Wednesday that the Treasury’s cash balance will be depleted sometime in the first half of November, which squares with the Treasury Department’s self-imposed deadline to Congress of November 5.

If Congress fails to raise the nation’s debt ceiling by that date, the US could risk a first-ever default on its obligations. The need to resolve the issue comes amid chaos in the House Republican caucus.

Boehner is scheduled to depart at the end of the month, but the most likely person to succeed him — House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-California) — unexpectedly dropped out of the race to succeed him. And there are no scheduled elections, or settled-upon candidates, for speaker.

But a Politico report on Wednesday suggested that House Republican leadership could move a standalone debt-ceiling bill if broader budget talks with the White House and Senate Republicans don’t lead to any immediate solutions.

A Boehner aide told Business Insider that while no decisions have been made, a debt-ceiling resolution is on the table.

“The Speaker has made it clear that he wants to solve some outstanding issues before he leaves,” the Boehner aide said. “No decisions have been made, but a resolution on the debt ceiling is certainly possible.”

Both Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Kentucky) came into the year promising to avoid the shutdown and debt-ceiling brinkmanship that has pervaded since Republicans took control of the House in 2011.

Many Washington analysts took McCarthy’s exit from the speaker race and the resulting uncertainty as a sign that raising the debt ceiling could become more complicated. Chris Krueger, an analyst at Guggenheim Securities, suggested there was a 40% probability of some kind of “accident” that would prevent Congress from raising the debt ceiling.

“Everyone who believes that this chaos now emboldens John Boehner to ‘clean the barn’ and pass the debt ceiling should take a deep breath,” he said last week. “With leadership elections now taking up precious time, he will have an even narrower window. And with the Freedom Caucus stock on the rise, we would expect Speaker candidates to be even more confrontational.”

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