'Deadpool' is blowing away all expectations

“Deadpool” has only been out in theatres since Thursday night, but box-office analysts have already realised they grossly underestimated the film’s performance.Ryan Reynold’s foul-mouthed antihero brought in a big $12.7 million haul Thursday night, the largest Thursday night box-office intake for an R-rated movie.

Friday, the merc with a mouth earned $47.5 million. 

Early estimates had “Deadpool” making $55 million to $70 million opening weekend. Now, analysts are calling for “Deadpool” to bring in well over $100 million by the end of the four-day holiday weekend. 

Here are some of the predictions going around.

Boxoffice.com is predicting $114 by the end of the weekend, and $127 million after the four-day holiday weekend.

Forbes’ Mark Hughes is calling for $115 million domestically by the end of Monday.

Film statistic research firm Exhibitor Relations is calling for $127 million+ by Monday’s end.

The film is poised to break several box-office records including largest February opening weekend, largest R-rated opening, largest R-rated comic adaptation, and — get this — the largest opening ever for 20th Century Fox, according to BoxOfficeMojo.

Here’s a look at the previous chart toppers for February. “Deadpool” should blast past them all.

Movie Year Opening Weekend Worldwide gross
Fifty Shades of Grey 2015 $85.2 million $571 million
The Passion of the Christ 2004 $83.8 million $611.9 million
The LEGO Movie 2014 $69 million $469.2 million
Hannibal 2001 $58 million $351.7 million
Valentine’s Day 2010 $56.3 million $216.5 million

Here are the largest R-rated opening weekends:

Movie Year Opening weekend Estimated production budget
The Matrix Reloaded 2003 $91.8 million $150 million
American Sniper”  2015 $89.3 million $58.8 million
The Hangover Part II 2011 $85.9 million $80 million
Fifty Shades of Grey 2015 $85.2 million $40 million
The Passion of the Christ 2004 $83.8 million $30 million

For what it’s worth, $55 million to $70 million was a big number to estimate for the weekend given the film’s R-rating and its February release. As well, “Deadpool” was made on a much more stingy budget than other superhero movies. It’s budget is estimated at $58 million

There also has never been a movie — or superhero movie — quite like Deadpool. Following a former mercenary Wade Wilson (Reynolds) who finds out he has cancer, Deadpool is aware he’s a comic book character and breaks the fourth wall throughout the film, casually making jokes about other superheroes, celebrities, and even himself to the audience. 

One of the things analysts didn’t seem to be accounting for was the character’s massive popularity and appeal. “Deadpool” may not have been a household name before this weekend, but he has a very large internet presence. He’s also been a favorite at Comic-con events for years. We’re talking Batman / Superman big.

A sequel for “Deadpool” is reportedly already in the works.

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