Here's A Slide From A Wall Street Presentation That Should Scare The Crap Out Of You

This is one of the first slides from Deutsche Bank’s “The House View” slide deck on the current state of the world. A couple of things to note here:

  • Deutsche thinks that both a renewed European crisis and a Chinese hard landing are relatively likely and relatively significant. Those two risks alone are worth worrying about.
  • The only sign of positivity in this chart is that a goldilocks scenario materialises (very unlikely).
  • A goldilocks scenario isn’t even really that great, it just means that everything’s sort of going ok and there are no crises.

The key takeaway here is that the likelihood of a crisis is higher than the likelihood that things go smoothly in the coming months.

Happy holidays!

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