This is one of the first slides from Deutsche Bank’s “The House View” slide deck on the current state of the world. A couple of things to note here:
- Deutsche thinks that both a renewed European crisis and a Chinese hard landing are relatively likely and relatively significant. Those two risks alone are worth worrying about.
- The only sign of positivity in this chart is that a goldilocks scenario materialises (very unlikely).
- A goldilocks scenario isn’t even really that great, it just means that everything’s sort of going ok and there are no crises.
The key takeaway here is that the likelihood of a crisis is higher than the likelihood that things go smoothly in the coming months.