ZERVOS: There's No Going Back, We Might Have An STD Situation Brewing...

Bloomberg TVJefferies’ Zervos — who was very quickly negative on the implications of the Cyprus news — has a new note out:

The die is cast. There is no going back for the Cypriots or the Eurozone leaders. As soon as the banks open in Cyprus there will be billions in withdrawals. The question of course is – “where will the money come from?”. Well, if the parliament votes YES, then the Euros will have to come from the Eurosystem. But there is a glitch. The Cypriots have already borrowed 10b euro via the ELA and Target2. How can Mario just wire over 20 billion more (less the 10 to 15 per cent haircut) for the Russians, and another 20 to 30 billion for the wealthy Greeks. What collateral will an economy with 20b in GDP post to get this cash? Unless Mario violates every collateral rule at the ECB, the Cypriot financial system will collapse even with a YES vote. Its a wonderful life – Cyprus style.

Again, this all assumes a deal is passed, which is not clear at all.

He concludes…

This is not a BTD opportunity (yet), rather we might actually have an STD (sell the dip) situation brewing. Good luck trading.

Find more Zervos at Markit Hub — >

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