Permabear David Tice is out with his latest market call: a 30%-60% decline for stocks.
In an interview with CNBC on Wednesday, Tice said the current market reminds him of 1999 and 2006-07, periods just before sharp market sell-offs when he says, “the VIX was very low and complacency was high.”
“The Fed has been able to engineer a nice recovery in asset prices from ’09 to ’14,” Tice said, “but trees don’t grow to the sky.”
The drop in stocks, Tice said, will create a period of extreme turmoil, with gold being a major beneficiary.
Tice thinks gold prices will go “far above” $US3,000 an ounce in the “not too distant future,” and Tice said of this call: “I’ve never been more confident of anything in my life.”
Tice is the founder of the Prudent Bear Fund, a mutual fund that, according to Federated Investors, “Seeks to help investors benefit from a declining U.S. stock market through the convenience of an actively managed bear fund.”
This chart from Morningstar shows the performance of the fund over the last ten years, with $US10,000 invested in the fund worth $US5,340 today. In contrast, $US10,000 invested in the S&P 500 over the same period would be worth $US22,244 today.
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