David Tice has been one of the most consistently bearish stock market pundits throughout the bull market.
“I tend to be very very early on these things,” Tice told CNBC’s Kelly Evans on Wednesday. “It’s hard to say when, but this is gonna end badly.”
Tice reiterated his August call that we should expect the stock market to fall by 30% to 60%.
“I have the same kind of feel in ’98 and ’99; also ’05 and ’06,” he said. “This is going to end badly. I have every confidence in the world.”
Tice continues to be concerned that velocity will pick up in the massive money supply, stoking inflation and forcing rates to go higher.
“0% interest rates are not going to be here forever,” he said. “When interest rates go up, there’s going to be problems. And rates are going to go up at some point.”
Stifel Nicolaus’ Kevin Caron was on to rebut Tice. He agreed that stocks are probably due for some pullback, but he didn’t see any signs of an imminent crash.
Caron also took issue with Tice’s comparison of today to the dotcom bubble and the housing bubble. He noted that stock market valuations are nowhere near their highs of the dotcom bubble and home prices and credit levels are nowhere near their highs of the more recent housing/credit bubble.
Caron further welcomed the idea of higher rates because it would likely accompany high real GDP growth.
Tice Isn’t Betting On It
Despite his bearishness, Tice is not actually betting on a near-term sell-off.
“I’ve not been short stocks,” Tice said after being asked by Evans how to play this market. “I’ve played VIX call options a couple of times. I’ve lost money some times; I’ve made a little bit of money some times.”
But He Recommends Gold
“I’m still a big believer in gold,” Tice said. “And that certainly hasn’t treated me well.”
Indeed, gold has been getting punished in recent years falling 28 % in 2013 and sliding another 2% this year.
Tice thinks gold is a good bet if inflation picks up. “Bullion I feel is the buy of a lifetime,” he said.
For someone who spends his time being so negative all the time, Tice actually has a very glass-half-full way of thinking about plunging gold prices.
“Looking at oil prices falling as they have, gold has actually held in pretty well given how low oil has gone,” he said.
Business Insider Emails & Alerts
Site highlights each day to your inbox.