David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff and the former Chief North American Economist at Merrill Lynch, is without question one of the sharpest economists in finance.So, it’s a real treat when he shares with us how he thinks.
From his latest must-read Breakfast With Dave note:
A BAKERS’ DOZEN!
In my last week at Merrill Lynch back in the spring of 2009, I published Rosie’s rules to remember (an economist’s dozen), a macro version of Bob Farrell’s 10 Market Rules to Remember. A long-time friend and subscriber reminded me of this yesterday and suggested that I should share them… so here they are!
- In order for an economic forecast to be relevant, it must be combined with a market call.
- Never be a slave to the data — they are no substitute for astute observation of the big picture.
- The consensus rarely gets it right and almost always errs on the side of optimism — except at the bottom.
- Fall in love with your partner, not your forecast.
- No two cycles are ever the same.
- Never hide behind your model.
- Always seek out corroborating evidence.
- Have respect for what the markets are telling you.
- Be constantly aware with your forecast horizon — many clients live in the short run.
- Of al the market forecasters, Mr. Bond gets it right most often.
- Highlights the risk to your forecasts.
- Get the U.S. consumer right and everything else will take care of itself.
- Expansions are more fun than recessions (straight from Bob Farrell’s quiver!).
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