A truly, truly baffling statement from David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff this morning:
To be sure, the double-dip has been avoided for now, but what is interesting is that nobody really believed in that scenario back in the summer, nor was any Wall Street research department calling for such even though for a time the risks were rising.
In other word, he’s saying: There were signs of a double dip, like the ECRI Leading Indicators, that I misread, but nobody else on Wall Street did… and yet therefore they’re the ones who are blindly optimistic.
Your head should be exploding right now.
And then in defence of his bear thesis, he then goes onto re-write history:
The bottom in the equity market rally came, not on a piece of data towards the end of August, but on the back of the comments from Ben Bernanke in Jackson Hole that another round of quantitative easing was coming our way. This is why the rally ended, not on any particular piece of economic data, but right after the FOMC meeting a few weeks ago — a classic case of buying the rumour and then selling the fact. This is how markets often work since so much perception and psychology is involved.
This is just false. Jackson Hole didn’t make the market shoot up. A strong ISM report did. We’ve discussed this thoroughly in the past.
*Also: He’s not really the only analyst who got the recovery wrong. Nouriel Roubini and some others of the more bearish persuasion have been off as well.
(Thanks to @dutch_book for the catch)