Gluskin Sheff chief economist David Rosenberg was on Bloomberg TV this morning talking about the U.S. housing market
Rosenberg said that although home prices do appear to be carving out a bottom, there are major issues that will put downward pressure on prices for a while yet.
On shadow inventories and foreclosures, Rosenberg told Bloomberg:
I estimate that there is between two and three million excess housing units on the market for sale when you count in all the shadow inventory, so you’re talking about at least another two or three years to clear the inventory and put a definitive floor under home prices.
There is no question that the decline in home prices is decelerating. Some people are claiming victory, that we’ve actually put a floor under home prices permanently. I’m not so sure about that.
I think we are going to get more foreclosed homes now and it’s going to add to the inventory situation. My sense is that when you take a look at where the value of these homes are being priced in the marketplace, it’s going to put overall downward pressure on housing prices over the course of the next several quarters.