David Rosenberg of Gluskin-Sheff boils today’s ugly jobs number into one key point:
As far as the September data is concerned, the key was that excluding the Census worker layoffs, payrolls fell 18,000. Full stop. This marks the first time since December 2009 that the underlying level of nonfarm payrolls fell in a month. So perhaps the equity market will rally on hopes that a weak economy will spur on more aggressive Fed intervention. Make no mistake, the economy is on very soft ground, especially benchmarked to all the steroids that have already been injected in terms of monetary, fiscal and bailout stimulus. This economy is still 7.75 million jobs shy of where it was when the Great Recession began in late 2007 — by this stage of the cycle, what is normal is that we are either at a new peak or well on our way.