David Rosenberg: Here's 5 Signs That The Economy Began The Double Dip In Q3


The powerful stock market surge and the decent ISM manufacturing report prompted Mark Haines to ask this morning: “Is the double-dip dead!?”

David Rosenberg definitely doesn’t think so. He’s been saying for a while that Q3 GDP would book a negative print, and today he adds to his list of reasons why:

We are currently seeing a discernable slowdown in the third quarter, suggesting that GDP growth be contracting (versus the 2.5% penciled in by economists) or at the least, real final sales. Consider the following Q3 momentum numbers:
•    Real personal income excluding government transfer: flat to slightly negative •    Real personal spending: up at 1.3% at an annual rate, a slowdown from the
already tepid 2.0% in Q2
•    Housing starts: -32.0% at an annual rate
•    Real non-residential construction: flat
• Non-defence shipments excluding aircraft: -1.2% at an annual rate, Q2 was +17.5%

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