David Rosenberg: The Canadian Housing Market Sure Looks Like A Bubble

As the U.S. begins to recover from its housing bubble, concerns have been escalating about a housing bubble in Canada.

“Canada is carving out a top, while the United States is seemingly carving out a bottom,” writes Gluskin Sheff economist David Rosenberg.

Using three charts, Rosenberg points out the stark differences in the Canadian and U.S. housing market and the existence of a possible Canadian housing bubble.

The ratio of Canadian housing starts to U.S. starts is now 0.3x:

Rosenberg cahrt

Photo: Gluskin Sheff

Canadian home prices are on average twice the level of home prices in the U.S. Historically, average home prices had been close to parity. Rosenberg asks, “which of the two do you think is going to correct relative to the other?”

 

rosenberg chart

Photo: Gluskin Sheff

Vancouver’s home prices are down 12 per cent from year-ago peak levels but still average $733,000. Toronto’s average is about $517,000. “Not sustainable, my friends,” writes Rosenberg.

toronto, vancouver housing rosenberg

Photo: Gluskin Sheff

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