DAVID ROSENBERG PRESENTS: 34 Charts You Must See Before Making A Move In 2013

david rosenberg

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The Fed with its unrelenting monetary stimulus and negative real interest rates has changed the relationship between stocks and bonds, writes Gluskin Sheff’s David Rosenberg.We continue to be in “the throes of a secular era of disinflation,” he writes.  In such a low-return environment “cash flow is king.”

We recently featured Rosenberg’s 10 near certainties to invest around yesterday. Today we put together a more detailed overview of his investment outlook for 2013.

Heading into the new year, Rosenberg writes, “what broadly worked in terms of delivering high-single-digit risk adjusted returns in 2012, with very few tweaks, should remain intact in 2013.” And his primary investment strategy continues to be safety and income at a reasonable price (SIRP).

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[slide
permalink=”returns-have-become-much-more-volatile-which-makes-the-market-more-suitable-for-active-managers-and-stock-pickers-1″
title=”Returns have become much more volatile, which makes the market more suitable for active managers and stock pickers”
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permalink=”the-drop-in-real-estate-prices-and-household-credit-is-very-unusual-2″
title=”The drop in real estate prices and household credit is very unusual”
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[slide
permalink=”weve-never-seen-anything-like-the-recent-collapse-in-net-worth-baby-boomers-no-longer-see-real-estate-as-a-retirement-asset-3″
title=”We’ve never seen anything like the recent collapse in net worth. Baby boomers no longer see real estate as a retirement asset”
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permalink=”even-the-most-bullish-central-bankers-dont-expect-unemployment-to-fall-below-7-percent-4″
title=”Even the most bullish central bankers don’t expect unemployment to fall below 7 per cent.”
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[slide
permalink=”the-fed-driving-real-interest-rates-into-deeper-negative-territory-is-a-great-reason-to-be-bullish-on-gold-and-gold-producers-5″
title=”The Fed driving real interest rates into deeper negative territory is a great reason to be bullish on gold and gold producers.”
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[slide
permalink=”in-a-0-percent-return-environment-cash-is-not-king-6″
title=””In a 0 per cent return environment …cash is not king.””
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[slide
permalink=”being-in-credit-strategies-has-been-a-better-alternative-than-cash-so-far-this-year-and-will-remain-so-in-2013-7″
title=””Being in credit strategies has been a better alternative than cash so far this year and will remain so in 2013.””
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image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/50d22be2ecad04104500000b/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”low-interest-rates-allow-companies-with-cash-to-fund-themselves-easily-8″
title=”Low interest rates allow companies with cash to fund themselves easily.”
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[slide
permalink=”and-the-spread-between-the-sp-500-dividend-yield-and-five-year-treasury-yield-is-at-its-widest-since-1958-9″
title=”And the spread between the S&P 500 dividend yield and five-year treasury yield is at its widest since 1958.”
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image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/50d22c77eab8eac212000015/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”dividends-are-up-8-percent-over-the-past-year-and-55-percent-since-august-2009-while-interest-income-growth-is-down-2-percent-in-the-last-year-and-30-percent-from-its-peak-in-august-2008-10″
title=”Dividends are up 8 per cent over the past year and 55 per cent since August 2009, while interest income growth is down 2 per cent in the last year and 30 per cent from its peak in August 2008.”
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image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/50d22c9269bedd2c6a000005/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”what-does-all-this-tell-us-people-are-gravitating-to-the-equity-market-for-yield-in-a-world-where-yield-is-increasingly-a-scarce-commodity-11″
title=”What does all this tell us? “People are gravitating to the equity market for yield in a world where yield is increasingly a scarce commodity.””
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[slide
permalink=”cheap-borrowing-rates-courtesy-the-fed-have-kept-corporate-default-rates-low-12″
title=”Cheap borrowing rates courtesy the Fed have kept corporate default rates low.”
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[slide
permalink=”and-the-balance-sheets-of-non-financial-corporates-are-in-very-good-shape-13″
title=”And the balance sheets of non-financial corporates are in very good shape.”
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[slide
permalink=”this-has-led-to-a-new-normal-in-investing-where-you-buy-bonds-for-the-price-and-buy-equities-for-the-yield-14″
title=”This has led to a new normal in investing, where you buy “bonds for the price” and buy “equities for the yield”.”
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[slide
permalink=”13-quarters-into-a-recovery-and-gdp-growth-is-painfully-slow-15″
title=”13 quarters into a recovery and GDP growth is painfully slow”
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[slide
permalink=”the-conditions-for-disinflation-have-already-arrived-and-in-a-disinflationary-backdrop-there-are-three-investment-characteristics-that-make-sense-income-income-and-income-16″
title=””The conditions for disinflation have already arrived. And in a disinflationary backdrop, there are three investment characteristics that make sense: income, income and income.””
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[slide
permalink=”with-the-slack-in-labor-and-product-markets-at-6-percent-the-fed-will-continue-to-resort-to-unconventional-measures-to-lower-the-cost-of-capital-17″
title=”With the slack in labour and product markets at 6 per cent the Fed will continue to resort to unconventional measures to lower the cost of capital.”
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[slide
permalink=”and-there-is-substantial-excess-capacity-in-the-global-economy-as-well-and-it-will-take-a-long-time-for-this-to-be-absorbed-18″
title=”And there is substantial excess capacity in the global economy as well and it will take a long time for this to be absorbed.”
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[slide
permalink=”the-fed-has-changed-the-relationship-between-stocks-and-bonds-by-nurturing-an-environment-of-deeper-negative-real-interest-rates-19″
title=”The Fed has changed the relationship between stocks and bonds by “nurturing an environment of deeper negative real interest rates”.”
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[slide
permalink=”in-a-low-interest-rate-environment-investors-should-focus-on-sirp-safety-and-income-at-a-reasonable-price-20″
title=”In a low interest rate environment, investors should focus on S.I.R.P. (Safety and Income at a Reasonable Price)”
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[slide
permalink=”europe-continues-to-be-source-of-uncertainty-21″
title=”Europe continues to be source of uncertainty…”
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[slide
permalink=”but-europe-is-also-part-of-the-reason-that-the-fed-and-the-bank-of-canada-keep-short-term-interest-rates-low-22″
title=”…But Europe is also part of the reason that the Fed and the Bank of Canada keep short-term interest rates low.”
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[slide
permalink=”and-there-is-no-decoupling-between-the-us-and-the-eu-23″
title=”And there is no decoupling between the U.S. and the EU.”
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[slide
permalink=”a-sustained-recovery-in-china-will-be-positive-for-commodities-24″
title=”A sustained recovery in China will be positive for commodities…”
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[slide
permalink=”and-resource-sensitive-currencies-like-the-canadian-dollar-will-benefit-25″
title=”And resource sensitive currencies like the Canadian dollar will benefit…”
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[slide
permalink=”europe-and-the-us-which-constitute-half-of-global-gdp-need-to-start-clearing-their-debt-26″
title=”Europe and the U.S. which constitute half of global GDP need to start clearing their debt.”
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[slide
permalink=”the-next-phase-despite-all-efforts-to-kick-the-can-down-the-road-is-deleveraging-among-sovereign-governments-27″
title=””The next phase, despite all efforts to kick the can down the road, is deleveraging among sovereign governments.””
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[slide
permalink=”household-balance-sheets-need-to-deleverage-but-with-the-us-reemerging-as-a-global-export-leader-household-balance-sheets-should-get-stronger-28″
title=”Household balance sheets need to deleverage, but with the U.S. reemerging as a global export leader household balance sheets should get stronger.”
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[slide
permalink=”regarding-the-fiscal-cliff-issue-the-only-question-is-one-of-timing-and-the-configuration-of-the-tax-increases-and-spending-reductions-29″
title=”Regarding the “fiscal cliff” issue, “the only question is one of timing and the configuration of the tax increases and spending reductions.””
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[slide
permalink=”solving-this-will-require-shared-sacrifice-and-hurt-domestic-demand-growth-30″
title=”Solving this will require shared sacrifice and hurt domestic demand growth.”
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[slide
permalink=”and-with-the-median-age-of-the-baby-boomers-reaching-56-this-year-there-is-a-strong-demographic-demand-for-income-31″
title=”And with the median age of the baby boomers reaching 56 this year there is a strong “demographic demand for income”.”
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image=”http://static.businessinsider.com/image/50d230e5eab8ea9522000003/image.jpg”
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[slide
permalink=”which-in-the-stock-market-means-getting-as-much-income-out-of-the-portfolio-as-possible-so-reliable-dividend-yield-and-dividend-growth-makes-perfect-sense-32″
title=”Which in the stock market means getting as much income out of the portfolio as possible, so “reliable dividend yield and dividend growth makes perfect sense”.”
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[slide
permalink=”in-such-an-environment-gold-has-acted-as-a-hedge-and-investors-should-consider-gold-mining-stocks-that-are-cheap-33″
title=”In such an environment gold has acted as a hedge, and investors should consider gold mining stocks that are cheap.”
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[slide
permalink=”remember-while-it-is-easy-for-bernanke-to-step-on-the-printing-press-it-is-harder-for-miners-to-mine-gold-34″
title=”Remember, while it is easy for Bernanke to step on the printing press it is harder for miners to mine gold.”
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[slide
permalink=”now-check-out-the-most-important-charts-in-the-world-35″
title=”Now check out the most important charts in the world…”
content=”THE MONEYGAME 70: The 70 Most Important Charts of 2012 >
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