Heading into week nine, the Denver Broncos are now the overwhelming favourite to win this year’s Super Bowl, with a 21% chance according to the latest model by Nate Silver.
Using a rating system that accounts for margin of victory, home-field advantage, strength of schedule, and prior performance and then simulating the rest of the season thousands of times, Silver determined the probability each team has of making the playoffs and winning the Super Bowl.
The Broncos have a healthy lead over the next two teams, the New England Patriots and Arizona Cardinals, both at 11%, and are getting stronger. Just three weeks ago, the Broncos had just a 9% chance of winning the Super Bowl and trailed both the Seattle Seahawks and San Diego Chargers.
Here are the seven teams that still have a realistic chance (at least 5%) of winning this year’s Super Bowl:
- Denver Broncos, 21%
- Arizona Cardinals, 11%
- New England Patriots, 11%
- Seattle Seahawks, 8%
- San Francisco 49ers, 6%
- Dallas Cowboys, 6%
- Philadelphia Eagles, 5%
At the other end, there are already 15 teams given less than a 1% chance of winning the Super Bowl. Of those teams, the Jets, Titans, Jags, Raiders, Redskins, Bucs, and Rams are all given less than 1% chance of even making the playoffs.
We have a long way to go, but right now, the most likely Super Bowl matchup is the Broncos versus the Cardinals.
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